AFCON 2025
Lamine Yamal came agonisingly close to winning the 2025 Ballon d’Or, finishing just behind Ousmane Dembélé after a remarkable breakthrough season with Barcelona and Spain. His dazzling performances earned him the Kopa Trophy for best young player, but the top honour slipped through his grasp.
As the 2026 edition looms, the teenager remains among the frontrunners, yet there are significant hurdles that could once again keep him from claiming football’s most coveted individual award.
1. Trophy Haul & Champions League Impact
One of the biggest deciding factors in past Ballon d’Or races has been performance in the Champions League and winning major trophies. In 2025, Ousmane Dembélé clinched the award after a season in which PSG won the Champions League, a major advantage over his peers.
While Yamal has been outstanding domestically with Barcelona (La Liga, Copa del Rey, etc.), the absence of a Champions League win has been a gap against rivals like Dembélé.
To win in 2026, Yamal will likely need not only domestic success, but also to have a clear, standout role in a Champions League campaign — ideally winning it. If he can’t match or exceed his competitors in the biggest club competitions, that could limit his chances.
2. Age & Experience Bias
Yamal is still very young (18-19 at present), which plays into both opportunity and perception. Some voters may unconsciously lean toward more proven players.
There is some historical precedent where even extremely talented younger players are passed over until they accumulate more seasons of top-level performance. Many analyses and commentaries note this “age factor” as a real limitation.
In addition, experience in big finals, consistency over several seasons, leadership, and ability to perform under pressure are often weighted heavily. Yamal has shown flashes of all those, but until he’s done so repeatedly, some voters may hold back giving him the very top individual prize.
3. Competition from Other Big Names and “Recency Bias”
Even if Yamal has a great season, he’ll face stiff competition from players who do as well or better — especially those who deliver in big moments (Champions League, international tournaments, etc.). For example, players like Dembélé (as seen in 2025) whose club achieves the treble or other major trophies tend to get a boost.
Also, there’s always a risk of “recency bias” — how a player finishes the season (or how they did in the most recent major championship) can sway voters more than earlier parts of the season.
If someone else peaks at the right time (e.g. a spectacular World Cup or continental tournament), or if Yamal has a dip or misses key moments, that could reduce his vote share.
