AFCON 2025
From life without Victor Osimhen to a qualification race with little room for error, Nigeria’s opening game against Madagascar could set the tone for the campaign
The Super Eagles begin their road to the 2027 Africa Cup of Nations on Friday, but this is not simply another international fixture.
It is the first competitive test of a new qualification campaign, and Nigeria will enter it with one of their biggest attacking questions in recent years: how do you score goals without Victor Osimhen?
The answer will have to begin in Uyo. Madagascar will arrive with their own ambitions, having reached the CHAN final earlier this year, and they know that making this a difficult evening for Nigeria could immediately change the complexion of the group.
For Nigeria, the objective is straightforward: start with three points; But how the match gets there could be very interesting.
Here are three things to expect when the Super Eagles face Madagascar at the Godswill Akpabio Stadium.
1. NIGERIA WILL HAVE TO LEARN TO SCORE WITHOUT OSIMHEN
The absence of Victor Osimhen changes this Nigeria team; There is no getting around it.
The striker has been one of the most reliable sources of goals for the Super Eagles in recent years, scoring 35 times in 52 appearances for Nigeria.
But on Friday, he will be watching from elsewhere. The Nigeria Football Federation confirmed that Osimhen will miss the opening AFCON qualifiers against Madagascar and Guinea-Bissau because of a muscle injury.
And that creates an opportunity for the other forwards in Eric Chelle’s squad.
Akor Adams, Tolu Arokodare and Taiwo Awoniyi are among the established options, while George Ilenikhena has received his first senior invitation.
Whoever starts will have an enormous responsibility; But this should not become a conversation about finding another Osimhen.
Nigeria cannot replace everything Osimhen brings simply by putting another striker in his position.
Instead, the Super Eagles will have to find different ways of creating and scoring goals.
That means more responsibility for Ademola Lookman; More responsibility for Moses Simon and Samuel Chukwueze.
More movement from the midfield, more runs beyond the defence, and, perhaps most importantly, better combination play around the striker.
This is where Friday’s game becomes an important learning experience for Chelle’s team.
Nigeria know Osimhen will not always be available. Injuries, suspensions and club commitments are part of international football.
At some point, the Super Eagles have to demonstrate that their attacking threat is bigger than one player.
Madagascar could therefore become the first serious test of Nigeria’s ability to produce goals without their biggest attacking reference point.
And whoever gets the opportunity up front has the chance to begin answering that question.
2. THE QUALIFICATION PATHWAY WILL MAKE THIS MATCH TOUGHER
There is another reason this game could be more difficult than it appears on paper.
The qualification pathway itself.
Nigeria, Madagascar and Guinea-Bissau are competing for the qualifying position in Group L, while co-host Tanzania already have a guaranteed place at the 2027 tournament.
That makes the mathematics of this group different from the usual four-team qualification race.
Every point between these three teams matters.
And that means Madagascar do not have to come to Uyo believing they need to win.
A draw would be a valuable result for the visitors.
A victory would be even bigger, Nigeria, meanwhile, will understand that dropping points at home could make the rest of the qualification campaign considerably more complicated.
That dynamic should influence the game; Madagascar can afford to be patient. Nigeria have to take the initiative.
And that difference in objectives could make the opening game particularly uncomfortable for the Super Eagles.
There is also the schedule to consider. Nigeria face Madagascar in Uyo on September 25 before travelling to Guinea-Bissau just four days later.
Madagascar, meanwhile, will host Tanzania on September 29.
So the opening round of fixtures immediately creates a situation where the teams will be thinking beyond a single 90 minutes.
Nigeria will want maximum points from their home game. Madagascar will want to leave Uyo with something.
That could make Friday less about an open, attacking contest and more about two teams understanding exactly what is at stake.
3. MADAGASCAR WILL DEFEND – AND GROW IN CONFIDENCE WITH EVERY MINUTE
This could be the defining feature of the match; Madagascar have little reason to open the game up unnecessarily.
They are playing away from home against one of Africa’s biggest football nations. They know Nigeria will have the majority of the expectation.
And they know that every minute they remain in the game will increase their belief, so expect the Barea to defend.
They could sit in a compact shape, protect the central areas and make Nigeria work for every opening.
The first 15 minutes could therefore be very important, if Nigeria score early, the game changes.
But if Madagascar survive the opening spell without conceding, their confidence will grow.
20 minutes becomes 30, 30 becomes half-time, and suddenly Madagascar are no longer simply trying to survive.
They begin believing they can get a result. That is where patience becomes critical for Nigeria.
The Super Eagles cannot afford to panic if the opening goal does not arrive quickly.
They cannot start forcing passes; They cannot abandon their defensive structure simply because they want a goal.
And they certainly cannot allow frustration to create the kind of mistakes Madagascar will be waiting to exploit.
The Barea have players capable of making Nigeria pay on the counter, particularly through experienced players such as Rayan Raveloson, Marco Ilaimaharitra and Hakim Abdallah.
So the longer the game remains level, the more dangerous Madagascar could become psychologically.
Not necessarily because they suddenly become the better team, but because their belief will increase while the pressure on Nigeria grows.
